Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 215.440480 256.529940 305.628024 369.300099 450.691558 552.637957 6.922337e+02
2025-10-12 172.242841 223.478104 292.002567 392.866482 542.047475 762.324009 1.128181e+03
2025-10-19 145.498538 200.528135 280.342856 409.578722 624.129794 987.892654 1.707356e+03
2025-10-26 126.159047 182.061140 268.401833 419.325966 695.292616 1223.631983 2.455063e+03
2025-11-02 110.786417 165.829446 255.260410 421.823960 752.691554 1459.008241 3.384585e+03
2025-11-09 97.110732 149.585409 238.337900 412.368775 782.835376 1652.091456 4.389742e+03
2025-11-16 86.207171 136.062358 223.339742 402.354337 807.807547 1846.347887 5.614344e+03
2025-11-23 77.214143 124.440855 209.617992 391.379652 826.673170 2036.269644 7.078205e+03
2025-11-30 74.681326 123.778868 215.976197 423.758818 962.232804 2648.796738 1.139484e+04
2025-12-07 69.567327 117.658454 210.659907 428.923924 1029.624919 3098.550070 1.603812e+04
2025-12-14 65.725466 113.410779 208.374702 440.602165 1120.929646 3716.684604 2.390853e+04
2025-12-21 61.231032 107.345647 201.357294 439.037875 1172.254152 4226.343490 3.331449e+04
2025-12-28 60.007424 107.773616 208.716057 477.529962 1378.278550 5723.300231 6.606875e+04
2026-01-04 58.191063 106.774459 212.799896 508.858474 1581.125339 7565.385667 1.359693e+05
2026-01-11 55.941270 104.576607 213.752065 531.782574 1768.853376 9719.973913 2.904245e+05
2026-01-18 53.355275 101.341181 211.703538 545.292625 1928.561951 12085.421785 6.427755e+05
2026-01-25 50.509876 97.215767 206.840216 548.762265 2047.556401 14471.211824 1.460456e+06
2026-02-01 47.173076 91.654395 197.588483 535.589950 2079.096019 16119.910950 2.955607e+06
2026-02-08 44.131866 86.482723 188.689120 521.670365 2101.386553 17819.256978 6.589213e+06
2026-02-15 41.329133 81.607202 179.964315 506.452110 2110.000033 19464.870620 1.642521e+07
2026-02-22 41.123501 82.737394 187.378134 551.457415 2506.654294 29122.971603 2.175074e+09
2026-03-01 39.493047 80.331743 184.808092 558.666014 2679.347306 36244.925603 NaN
2026-03-08 38.280327 78.816455 184.530906 574.993658 2934.215192 47849.831591 NaN